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Itafos Updates
Asset Heavy

Itafos Updates

Trading at half the valuation of peers, mine life expanded to 2037, deleveraged.

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Karst Research
Jul 08, 2025
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Itafos Updates
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Itafos continues to perform well, since I wrote about it on April 14th the stock is +40%, YTD the stock is +62%.

Much of this has to do with the increased performance and extended mine life from their flagship and key asset, Conda, the sale of non-core Araxa Project to St. George Mining Limited, and positive market conditions for MAP/DAP. For those unfamiliar with some of these terms, the below is the initial post on Itafos.

Karst Research
Phosphate Mine Opportunity
One fact about me that I believe some may know is that my first “love” when it comes to businesses has always been metals/mineral extraction. Whether it be iron, gold, lead, oil, gas, lithium, phosphate rock, potash, limestone, etc. I have always had an affinity for not only the commodity, but also the businesses that extract the commodity. To me, there are few businesses as real as the ones directly supplying the world with materials and goods to create, well, anything. Everything we touch is a function of someone taking a risk to extract a metal or mineral out of the ground. The computer I am typing on contains copper, the energy that powers our society is oil/gas (amongst others), the walls in my house contain gypsum, and the food I ate was fertilized with phosphate or potash…
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3 months ago · 3 likes · Karst Research

Highlights

  • Despite improved fundamentals, Itafos trades at ~2.4x 2025E EBITDA, a steep discount to fertilizer peers (avg ~7.3x). At ~$2.4x, Itafos’ multiple is less than half that of Mosaic (~5.5x) and Nutrien (~6.9x) and far below smaller peer Intrepid Potash (~9.6x). The company’s balance sheet (net leverage turned slightly negative in Q1) and cash flows position it to potentially narrow this gap.

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